Tag Archives: Uganda

Roundup of recently published work

I’ve left the blog untended for too long.  In case you missed them, here are four recent articles I have authored or co-authored about this eventful time:

November: Historian Douglas Johnson, geographer Matthew Pritchard and I wrote ‘After the Khartoum Agreement: Boundary Making and the 32 States in South Sudan,’ a briefing published by the Rift Valley Institute.  While a new national government and revised security arrangements are the focus of South Sudan’s September 2018 peace deal, the accord also establishes two new commissions to decide the number of states and their boundaries. We discuss the history of boundary-making in South Sudan, and the prospects for the new commissions to resolve the underlying disagreements.

September: I discuss what is new (and not) in the September 2018 peace agreement in South Sudan, consider why the government agreed to the deal, and explain the agreement’s risks in this USIP briefing.

August: Payton Knopf and I discuss the South Sudan mediation context, and the evolving roles of Sudan, Uganda and Ethiopia in the process.  And earlier in the month, with serious deficiencies in the draft agreement still in the (as then unsigned) text, I warn ‘that any agreement, should, at minimum, not make things any worse. If not corrected, certain provisions in the agreement may directly spur new violence,’ in an op-ed for The Hill.

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Ethiopia and the South Sudanese Civil War

The journal e-International Relations published my article, ‘Ethiopia and the South Sudanese Civil War,’ which identifies and discusses Ethiopia’s strategic interests in South Sudan.  Read more here.

The need to outline expectations: how the international community should support South Sudan’s revitalization forum

Without setting clear expectations for the upcoming peace forum, the international community risks allowing the regional mediation to fail, exacerbating the conflict in South Sudan.

South Sudan faces an existential crisis. More than four million people – between a third and half of the population – are displaced from their homes. Nearly eight million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.  The economy is in tatters. After almost four years of civil war, conflict has devolved into fighting across multiple fronts.

In an attempt to address the ongoing crisis, the Horn of Africa’s regional organisation, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), initiated the High Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) in June. The forum is intended to revive an effectively defunct 2015 peace accord, the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS), which collapsed following fighting in Juba in July 2016 between government forces and the armed opposition loyal to former First Vice President Riek Machar.

 

Read more at: https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/how-support-south-sudan-s-high-level-revitalization-forum

Why doesn’t South Sudan’s refugee exodus spur East Africa to action?

Migration crises in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa reconfigured global politics. So why – as the millionth South Sudanese took refuge in Uganda earlier this year, and with the total number of South Sudanese refugee and asylum seekers now more than two million – is there no comparable shift in the political posture of East African states?

Read more here.